Market Insights:

The Seasonal Influenza Market size is expected to reach US$ 10.0 billion by 2031, from US$ 6.5 billion in 2023, at a CAGR of 5.5% during the forecast period. Seasonal influenza, also known as the flu, is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses. It is treated with antiviral drugs, vaccines, and supportive care. Key drivers include rising disease burden and advances in diagnostic tests and vaccine technology.

Seasonal influenza causes around 3-5 million severe illnesses and 290,000-650,000 deaths every year worldwide (WHO). It is a major global public health concern.

The Seasonal Influenza Market is segmented by vaccine type, technology, age group, distribution channel, and region. By vaccine type, the inactivated segment held the largest share in 2022. Inactivated vaccines are proven safe and effective for preventing seasonal influenza. They are being produced in increasing volumes using faster and more scalable cell-based and recombinant production platforms. For example, Seqirus launched the cell-based Flucelvax Quadrivalent vaccine in 2016.

Epidemiology Insights:

• Influenza causes around 9-45 million illnesses, 140,000-810,000 hospitalizations, and 12,000-61,000 deaths annually in the US. Over 200,000 people are hospitalized each year for influenza in Europe.
• Key trends include rising circulation of influenza B viruses and an increase in hospitalization rates among older adults in countries like the US. Antigenic drift is driving frequent updates to seasonal vaccines.
• The estimated influenza incidence rate is 9.3 million in the US, 14.2 million in Germany, 3.9 million in France, 1.1 million in Spain, and 3.7 million in the UK.
• The expanding elderly population and rising disease awareness are creating growth opportunities by increasing vaccination coverage.
• Influenza is a common illness rather than a rare disease. The threat of pandemics also looms, underscoring the need for improved vaccines and treatments.

Market Landscape

• There are gaps in protection against emerging and drifted strains, and a need for more effective vaccines for high-risk groups like the elderly.
• Approved options include egg-based and cell-based inactivated vaccines (Fluzone, Flucelvax), live attenuated nasal spray vaccine (Flumist), and antivirals like Tamiflu.
• mRNA, universal flu, and nanoparticle vaccines are emerging technologies in the pipeline. New neuraminidase inhibitors and monoclonal antibody therapies are also being developed.
• Notable breakthroughs include BiondVax's M-001 universal flu vaccine and Vaxart's oral tablet vaccine.
• The market has a mix of big pharma companies like Sanofi and GSK alongside smaller players like Novavax and Vaxart focused on novel approaches.

Market Scope:

Market Drivers:

Rising Disease Burden and Pandemic Threats

Influenza causes substantial morbidity and mortality every year. According to WHO, there are 3-5 million severe illnesses and 290,000-650,000 deaths globally. Influenza pandemics also remain a serious public health threat as evident from previous outbreaks like H1N1 swine flu. The need for better preparedness through improved vaccines, surveillance, and pandemic planning is a major driver. Government authorities like the WHO and CDC continue to stress the importance of vaccination to reduce influenza’s health and economic impact.

Advances in Vaccine Technologies

The seasonal influenza vaccine market is undergoing innovation led by investments in new production platforms. Cell-based and recombinant manufacturing enable faster, more scalable production to increase supply security. High-growth recombinant HA vaccines include Flublok and Supemtek. Adjuvants and high-dose formulations are being used to boost immunogenicity in older adults. Higher valency vaccines like quadrivalents provide broader protection. Such technological improvements are expected to meet the demand for enhanced influenza control.

Increasing Recommendations and Access

Many countries have expanded routine immunization recommendations beyond traditional high-risk groups to broader demographics. For instance, the US recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months old. Government expanded vaccination programs and reimbursements make seasonal vaccines more accessible. Market growth is likely as higher vaccination rates are achieved globally based on awareness of influenza’s societal burden.

Growth in Emerging Markets

Developing countries provide significant opportunities for market expansion as healthcare infrastructure and spending levels improve. Large and untapped populations exist in regions like APAC and Latin America where vaccination rates have traditionally lagged Western markets. Local manufacturing and distribution partnerships are increasing seasonal vaccine accessibility in these geographies. Rising disposable incomes also support vaccine uptake.

Market Opportunities:

Increasing Use of Real-World Evidence

Real-world data from clinical practice on influenza vaccine effectiveness, safety, and cost-effectiveness is becoming more widely leveraged to support product development and uptake. For instance, the US CDC’s Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network provides insights into how well vaccines protect against circulating strains. Such evidence strengthens value demonstration and helps refine vaccine policies and guidelines. Continued focus on real-world evidence generation will aid market growth.

mRNA and Universal Influenza Vaccines

Novel technologies like mRNA vaccines and universal flu vaccines targeting conserved viral proteins could revolutionize the influenza vaccine market. Players like Moderna and BiondVax are active in this space. Such next-generation vaccines promise broader, longer-lasting protection compared to current seasonal products. As candidates advance through pipelines, the introduction of these new products with differentiated clinical profiles will expand the market.

Increasing Use of Technology and Analytics

Digital tools are creating opportunities to strengthen influenza vaccination programs. Data analytics help track virus spread and model outbreak risks to optimize vaccine strain selection and distribution logistics. Social media, apps, and other digital channels also enable targeted communication campaigns to improve immunization rates. Such technologies can reduce costs and enhance patient reach.

Geographic Expansions

Pharmaceutical companies are expanding seasonal influenza vaccine availability across new countries to tap into growing demand. Recent examples include Sanofi’s Vaxigrip launch in India and Mylan’s Infliximab launch across Europe. Favorable demographic and epidemiological trends in emerging markets create significant opportunity for geographic growth. Local partnerships also enable market entry and access to new patient pools.

Market Trends:

Rising Popularity of Retail Pharmacies

Retail pharmacies like CVS, Walgreens and Rite Aid are becoming more prominent in influenza immunization programs. Their convenience, extended hours and no appointment requirements improve accessibility. On-site pharmacy vaccination increased from 20% of US adults in 2012 to 34% in 2017. Ongoing partnerships with payers and employers will likely extend this trend of retail pharmacies capturing larger seasonal vaccine market share.

Quadrivalent Vaccines Gaining Prominence

Quadrivalent influenza vaccines containing four viral strains are replacing trivalents given their broader immunization coverage. For instance, between 2013-2019, quadrivalent flu vaccines rose from 1% to 43% of used doses in the US. Key quadrivalent vaccines include Fluzone High-Dose and Flucelvax. Superior efficacy against co-circulating B strain lineages will support further quadrivalent penetration.

Pediatric Vaccinations on the Rise

Influenza vaccination rates have risen faster among children versus adults from 2009-2018 in the US. American Academy of Pediatrics recommendations, school-located vaccination programs, and universal vaccination policies have expanded vaccine uptake in this demographic. Market growth from higher pediatric demand is likely as awareness of flu’s impact on children and benefits of early immunization disseminates globally.

Funding for Novel Influenza Products

Increased funding and collaborations to accelerate the development of improved seasonal influenza vaccines and alternatives to shots illustrates rising innovation. For instance, the EU Innovative Medicines Initiative provided $128 million for flu research across 40 entities. Alternative delivery methods like nasal and intradermal vaccines are progressing to overcome limitations of injectable shots.

Market Restraints:

Frequency of Strain Mutations

Influenza viruses continuously evolve through antigenic drift, limiting vaccine efficacy against emerged strains. Updated vaccines must be formulated annually to match Northern and Southern hemisphere circulation patterns. This vast strain variability poses immunization challenges and hinders market growth. Universal vaccine approaches targeting conserved regions may be better suited.

Negative Perceptions Hampering Uptake

Misconceptions about side effects and effectiveness undermine public confidence in flu shots. For example, 41% of US adults feel seasonal influenza vaccines cannot prevent illness despite evidence indicating reductions in infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Such negative perceptions and barriers to acceptance hamper vaccine coverage and market expansion.

Premium Pricing of Newer Vaccines

High production costs and extensive R&D investment contribute to newer influenza vaccine products being priced at a premium versus conventional options. For instance, quadrivalent inactivated vaccines cost twice as much as trivalents. While clinical superiority justifies such pricing, it can constrain uptake and market growth, especially in developing regions with limited healthcare budgets.

Recent Development:

Market Regional Insights:

Seasonal influenza is a worldwide concern with country-specific epidemiology guiding vaccine formulation.

• North America is expected to be the largest market for Seasonal Influenza Market during the forecast period, accounting for over 40% of the market share in 2023. The growth is attributed to high influenza vaccination rates and investments in R&D.
• The European market is expected to be the second-largest market, accounting for over 30% market share in 2023. Increased disease burden in countries like Germany is spurring demand.
• The Asia Pacific market is expected to be the fastest-growing market for Seasonal Influenza Market, with a CAGR of 8% during 2024-2031. Rising disposable incomes and healthcare spending is propelling growth.

Market Segmentation:

• By Vaccine Type
  • Inactivated
  • Live Attenuated
  • Recombinant
  • Others
• By Technology
  • Egg-based
  • Cell-based
  • Recombinant
  • Others
• By Age Group
  • Pediatric
  • Adult
  • By Distribution Channel
  • Hospitals
  • Clinics
  • Pharmacies
  • Others
• By Valence
  • Trivalent
  • Quadrivalent
  • Other multivalent
• By Regions

• North America
  • U.S.
  • Canada
• Europe
  • Germany
  • U.K.
  • Spain
  • France
  • Italy
  • Russia
  • Rest of Europe
• Asia Pacific
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
  • Australia
  • South Korea
  • ASEAN
  • Rest of Asia Pacific
• Latin America
  • Brazil
  • Argentina
  • Mexico
  • Rest of Latin America
• Middle East & Africa
  • GCC Countries
  • Israel
  • South Africa
  • North Africa
  • Central Africa
  • Rest of the Middle East

Top companies in the Seasonal Influenza Market:

• GlaxoSmithKline
• Sanofi Pasteur
• Seqirus
• AstraZeneca
• Novartis
• Abbott
• F. Hoffmann-La Roche
• Merck & Co.
• Becton, Dickinson and Company
• Quidel Corporation